The 2025 G20 Summit, hosted in Johannesburg, South Africa on November 22–23, is a landmark in global diplomacy. For the first time, the G20 convenes on African soil, under the presidency of South Africa, with the theme “Solidarity, Equality, Sustainability.” This theme reflects the host nation’s ambition to elevate African priorities in global economic governance, particularly around debt relief, infrastructure financing, and fairer access to global markets.
The summit arrives at a moment of significant uncertainty in the global economy. Trade tensions, tariff disputes, and supply chain disruptions have reshaped the landscape of international commerce. The absence of one of the G20’s largest members, the United States, underscores the fractured nature of global cooperation. Yet this absence also creates space for other members to advance initiatives that might otherwise stall, particularly in the areas of trade diversification and tariff reform.
The G20’s composition representing nearly 85% of global GDP and 75% of world trade ensures that its decisions carry weight far beyond the summit itself. Leaders from advanced economies and emerging markets alike will gather to discuss pressing issues, from trade and tariffs to climate finance and digital governance. The presence of the African Union as a permanent member further broadens representation, ensuring that continental priorities are central to the agenda.
Johannesburg’s role as host is symbolic. Africa has long been a participant in global trade but rarely a central convenor of global economic governance. By hosting the summit, South Africa signals the continent’s growing importance in shaping trade rules, tariff frameworks, and development priorities.
The summit also reflects broader shifts in global power. Emerging economies are increasingly assertive in demanding fairer trade rules and reduced tariff barriers. The absence of the United States highlights the challenges of consensus but also underscores the potential for new coalitions to emerge.
Against this backdrop, the Johannesburg summit is expected to focus heavily on trade deals and tariff frameworks. With multiple negotiations already underway, the meeting provides an opportunity to accelerate progress, strengthen multilateral institutions, and build coalitions around shared economic goals. The question is not only what will be discussed, but what tangible accomplishments can emerge from this historic gathering.
Who Will Be There
The G20 brings together the world’s largest economies 19 countries plus the European Union and African Union representing nearly 85% of global GDP and 75% of world trade. Leaders expected in Johannesburg include South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the European Union’s Ursula von der Leyen. Other participants include leaders from Japan, Germany, France, the U.K., Brazil, Mexico, Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.
Canada will be represented by Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has made diversification of trade a central priority. With American tariffs continuing to affect Canadian exporters, Canada has committed to doubling non‑U.S. exports over the next decade. Carney’s presence at Johannesburg underscores Canada’s intent to use the summit as a platform for advancing new trade partnerships and tariff relief measures.
Invited states such as Denmark, Egypt, Nigeria, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, UAE, and Vietnam will broaden representation, while international organizations including the IMF, World Bank, WTO, UN, and WHO will provide institutional perspectives. The African Union’s permanent membership ensures that continental priorities are represented at the highest level.
South Africa, as host, will emphasize Africa’s priorities, including debt restructuring, infrastructure financing, and tariff reduction for African exports. India will champion Global South solidarity, pushing for expanded trade corridors across Asia and Africa and reduced tariff barriers for developing nations. The EU will push for WTO reform and highlight ongoing trade negotiations with Indo‑Pacific partners.
China is expected to announce expanded zero‑tariff treatment for South African goods, strengthening South‑South trade and deepening Beijing’s influence in Africa. Other major economies will bring their own priorities, from energy security to digital governance.
The notable absence is the United States. Only a U.S. embassy representative will attend the ceremonial handover, as America assumes the G20 presidency in December. This absence removes a dominant voice from tariff debates, creating space for other members including Canada to advance initiatives without obstruction.
Trade Deals on the Agenda
Trade policy is expected to dominate the Johannesburg summit, with multiple deals and negotiations in play. The European Union will use the summit to accelerate negotiations with India, Australia, UAE, Thailand, and Malaysia. These agreements aim to reduce tariffs on manufactured goods, digital services, and clean energy technologies, while diversifying supply chains away from single‑market dependencies.
Canada’s agenda is equally ambitious. Ongoing talks with Europe, India, and Qatar are expected to focus on tariff relief for Canadian steel, aluminum, and agricultural products. Canada’s government has committed to doubling non‑U.S. exports over the next decade, a goal driven by the impact of American tariffs on Canadian sectors. Johannesburg provides a platform to advance these negotiations and position Canada as a reliable partner for tariff reduction and investment.
China is expected to announce expanded zero‑tariff treatment for South African goods, including agricultural exports and raw materials. This move strengthens South‑South trade and deepens Beijing’s influence in Africa, while positioning tariff relief as a tool of development diplomacy.
India will push for expanded trade corridors across Asia and Africa, emphasizing fairer access to global markets for emerging economies. Modi’s agenda includes tariff reduction for developing nations and expanded connectivity projects.
Global South nations, led by South Africa and the African Union, will argue for fairer trade rules and reduced tariff barriers. They will push for reforms that allow African and other emerging economies to compete on equal footing. Johannesburg provides a platform for collective bargaining, with Africa seeking to secure better terms in global trade deals.
The emphasis on trade deals reflects broader shifts in global economic governance. With one major member absent, others including Canada are seizing the opportunity to advance agreements that could reshape tariff landscapes and global supply chains.
What They Might Accomplish in Johannesburg
Despite the disruption caused by the absence of one major member, several tangible outcomes are possible. Bilateral trade deals may advance more quickly, with agreements between regions such as Europe, Asia, and Africa gaining momentum. Zero‑tariff pledges and diversification strategies could be formalized, creating immediate benefits for exporters and investors.
Momentum on WTO reform may also emerge. Without obstruction, members could agree on a framework to strengthen dispute resolution and modernize trade rules. While a full overhaul is unlikely, Johannesburg could mark the beginning of a serious reform process that restores confidence in multilateral trade governance.
Critical minerals partnerships may be announced, reflecting the growing importance of resource security in global trade. Cooperation in this sector could provide both economic opportunities and strategic resilience, particularly for countries seeking to reduce dependence on single suppliers. Canada, with its resource base, is expected to play a role in these discussions.
Climate finance and debt relief are also expected to feature prominently. African nations will press for concrete commitments, and while binding agreements may be difficult, a communique could endorse new coalitions for climate adaptation funding.
Coalition building may emerge as a new model. Smaller blocs within the G20 could advance specific trade and tariff agendas, creating momentum even in the absence of full consensus. Canada, the EU, and India are likely to be active in these coalitions.
The summit may not resolve all disputes, but it could lay the groundwork for future cooperation. Even incremental steps could signal a shift toward more pragmatic approaches to global trade governance.
Looking Back: What Came Out of the Last Summit
The 2024 G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro produced a wide‑ranging set of commitments, but implementation has been uneven. On trade, leaders reaffirmed support for open, resilient systems, but only one explicit trade‑related commitment was recorded in the final communique. Since then, protectionist measures have actually increased, with G20 import‑related restrictions covering more than 22% of total imports by late 2025.
On infrastructure, Rio announced the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor, intended to boost connectivity and reduce tariff barriers. Progress has been slow, with geopolitical tensions delaying implementation. The corridor remains more of a vision than a reality, underscoring the difficulty of translating summit commitments into tangible outcomes.
On debt and development, commitments to debt relief and Sustainable Development Goals were made, but many low‑income countries continue to face unsustainable debt burdens. Johannesburg is expected to revisit these issues with stronger African leadership, potentially pushing for more concrete timelines and mechanisms.
On climate finance, Rio emphasized adaptation and clean energy transitions, but funding pledges have not materialized at scale. Johannesburg may push for operationalizing “loss and damage” funds promised at COP30, but the gap between commitments and delivery remains significant.
Rio also highlighted digital governance and AI cooperation, but progress has been limited. Cybersecurity concerns and divergent regulatory approaches have slowed implementation. Johannesburg may revisit these issues with a focus on balancing innovation and regulation.
In short, while Rio produced ambitious language, many commitments remain aspirational rather than achieved. Johannesburg offers a chance to reset, particularly on trade and tariffs, where members including Canada are ready to act.
Conclusion
The Johannesburg G20 Summit is historic not only for being Africa’s first, but for its focus on trade deals and tariff reform. With one major member absent, other participants are poised to advance agreements that could reshape global supply chains and strengthen multilateral frameworks. The emphasis on diversification, zero‑tariff pledges, and WTO reform reflects a collective recognition that resilience in trade requires new approaches.
The summit may accomplish progress in bilateral trade deals, resource partnerships, and coalition building. Even incremental steps could signal a shift toward more pragmatic cooperation, particularly in areas where consensus has been elusive. The presence of the African Union ensures that development priorities are central, positioning Africa as a key player in shaping global trade governance. Canada’s participation highlights how mid‑sized economies can leverage the summit to diversify markets and reduce reliance on single trading partners.
Looking back at Rio, the contrast is clear. Ambitious commitments were made, but many remain aspirational. Johannesburg offers a chance to reset, with a focus on tangible outcomes rather than lofty declarations. The challenge will be to ensure that agreements reached at the summit translate into real‑world benefits for economies and communities. Canada, like many others, will be judged not only on the deals it announces but on how those deals are implemented in practice.
The summit also underscores the importance of multilateral institutions. WTO reform, debt relief frameworks, and climate finance mechanisms are not simply technical issues; they are the backbone of global cooperation. Johannesburg may not deliver sweeping breakthroughs, but it can provide momentum toward strengthening these institutions. For Canada and other members, supporting these reforms is essential to ensuring that trade deals are enforceable and disputes are resolved fairly.
Another key takeaway is the rise of coalition diplomacy. Smaller groups within the G20 may form around shared interests in clean energy, digital governance, or critical minerals. These coalitions can advance specific agendas even when full consensus is elusive. Canada, the EU, and India are likely to be active in such coalitions, using them to push forward trade diversification and tariff relief strategies.
Ultimately, the Johannesburg summit underscores both the promise and the limitations of global economic governance. It highlights the importance of trade deals and tariff frameworks in shaping the future of commerce, while reminding participants that commitments must be matched by implementation. Whether Johannesburg delivers lasting change will depend not only on the agreements signed, but on the political will to carry them forward in the months and years ahead. For Canada, Africa, and all members, the summit is a reminder that trade is not just about numbers it is about resilience, fairness, and shared prosperity.
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