Canadian producers are waiting on a United States duty determination that was due in August, has not arrived, and would deliver relief to an industry that has already lost 21 mills and 15,000 jobs
VANCOUVER, September 24, 2026. The most consequential number in Canadian forestry right now is one that does not exist yet.
The United States Department of Commerce has not issued final results in the seventh administrative review of the antidumping and countervailing duty orders on Canadian softwood lumber. It was expected to. The statutory clock started when the preliminary results were published in the Federal Register on April 14, 2026, and the unextended 120-day deadline of August 12 came and went. Commerce has the option of a 180-day extension, which would land the determination somewhere around mid-October. Global Affairs Canada and the trade press both say only “October 2026.” No Commerce extension memorandum fixing a specific date has surfaced publicly.
Until it does, the rate at the border does not change. Canadian producers continue to post cash deposits at the sixth-review amended final rates: an all-others combined antidumping and countervailing rate of 35.16 per cent, on top of which sits a flat 10 per cent Section 232 tariff on softwood timber and lumber. The all-in figure for most Canadian exporters is 45.16 per cent.
The preliminary results point to relief. Whether relief is the right word for what would arrive is the question the industry is actually arguing about.
The rate stack, precisely
Getting the arithmetic right matters here, because two versions of it circulate in coverage and only one is correct.
In force today, from the sixth administrative review: Canfor Corporation pays 35.47 per cent antidumping and 12.12 per cent countervailing, a combined 47.59 per cent, rising to 57.59 per cent with Section 232. West Fraser Mills pays 9.65 per cent antidumping and 16.82 per cent countervailing, combined 26.47 per cent, or 36.47 per cent all-in. Every other reviewed Canadian producer, including Resolute, pays the all-others rate of 20.53 per cent antidumping and 14.63 per cent countervailing. That is 35.16 per cent combined, 45.16 per cent all-in. New exporters with no review history pay 20.23 per cent combined, 30.23 per cent all-in.
The 35.16 figure, rather than the 35.19 that sometimes appears, reflects a September 11, 2025 amendment correcting ministerial errors in Canfor’s antidumping calculation, which moved the all-others antidumping rate from 20.56 to 20.53 per cent.
The seventh review’s preliminary antidumping results, signed April 8 and published April 14, cut sharply: Canfor 16.85 per cent, Resolute 13.25 per cent, West Fraser 4.77 per cent, and non-selected companies 10.66 per cent. Commerce explained its method plainly in the notice: “we are preliminarily assigning the weighted average of the three mandatory respondents’ weighted-average dumping margins, to the companies not selected.”
The countervailing side moved twice. April preliminaries put Resolute at 11.70 per cent, West Fraser at 15.93 per cent, and non-selected companies at 14.17 per cent. A post-preliminary decision memorandum dated June 29 and released June 30 superseded those figures, determining “a total net countervailable subsidy rate of 12.24 percent ad valorem for Resolute and 16.15 percent ad valorem for West Fraser,” with a post-preliminary rate of 14.52 per cent for companies reviewed but not individually examined.
Put together, and this arithmetic is unofficial because Commerce has published no consolidated combined-rate table for the post-preliminary stage, the current preliminary picture for the all-others group is roughly 25.18 per cent combined, or roughly 35.18 per cent with Section 232 layered on. The widely quoted 24.83 per cent figure is the April number and is now stale.
The headline, if the finals track the preliminaries, is a cut of roughly ten percentage points in the antidumping and countervailing burden. The eighth administrative review, covering calendar 2025, was initiated on March 9, 2026, with Resolute and West Fraser selected as mandatory respondents. The cycle does not stop.
Why a ten-point cut may not feel like one
The Section 232 tariff does not move with the review cycle, and it does not respond to Canadian mill economics at all.
Proclamation 10976, signed September 29, 2025 and published October 6, imposed a 10 per cent ad valorem duty on softwood timber and lumber effective 12:01 a.m. Eastern on October 14, 2025, under tariff subheading 9903.76.01. Upholstered wooden furniture and kitchen cabinets and vanities were set at 25 per cent. Proclamation 11000, issued December 31, 2025, delayed the scheduled January 1, 2026 escalations for furniture and cabinets by a full year, to January 1, 2027. The softwood rate was never scheduled to rise and has not. No 2026 proclamation, Federal Register notice or Customs and Border Protection action has altered it.
Canada has no quota, tariff-rate quota, cap or exemption under that proclamation. Clause 7 caps the United Kingdom at 10 per cent and the European Union and Japan at 15 per cent inclusive of Column 1 duties. Korea was added at 15 per cent in December 2025 and Taiwan in May 2026. Canada appears in none of those arrangements.
The tariff stacks. Proclamation 10976 states that “the tariffs imposed in this proclamation are in addition to any other duties, taxes, fees, exactions, and charges.” Global Affairs Canada puts the same point in Canadian terms: “For any products included in the scope of both the Section 232 tariffs as well as the U.S. duties, the tariffs will be applied in addition to the anti-dumping and countervailing duties already in place.”
There is a scope mismatch worth understanding, because it catches producers who thought they were outside the dispute. The Section 232 tariff is defined by tariff classification, covering headings 4403, 4406 and 4407. The antidumping and countervailing scope is defined by product description. Maritime lumber certified by the Atlantic Lumber Board has historically been excluded from the duty orders. Global Affairs Canada notes it is nonetheless “not exempt from the Section 232 tariffs.” Atlantic producers who spent two decades outside the trade case are now inside a tariff.
One further deadline sits inside Proclamation 10976 and has attracted almost no attention. Clause 9 requires Commerce to report to the President on hardwood timber and lumber “By October 1, 2026.” That is one week away.
The third layer
The summer added an instrument nobody in forestry had planned for.
Between July 20 and 22, 2026, the White House signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, imposing 50 per cent duties on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods. Implementation was paused on August 19 while negotiations continued. Canada suspended those negotiations on August 21, and the duties took effect on August 22, covering roughly US$27.6 billion of Canadian goods including paper and wood products. A September 8 update added further wood products and furniture.
The critical carve-out: anything already subject to Section 232 is excluded from Section 338. Dimensional softwood lumber does not take another 50 points. What does get hit is the value-added end of the business, precisely the segment that provincial and federal transformation programs have spent a decade encouraging the industry to move into. Plywood, panels, laminated veneer lumber and secondary manufacturing all fall inside the 338 net.
Derek Nighbor of the Forest Products Association of Canada put the sectoral count at “98 tariff line items were added for forestry, which is a direct assault on our sector and on our workers here in Canada,” in remarks to Canadian Press on July 22. He has placed the total range of duties and tariffs on Canadian forest products at between 25 and 85 per cent depending on the product.
West Fraser’s own disclosure illustrates the split. On its second-quarter call in August, the company said softwood lumber, oriented strand board and MDF shipments to the United States are not affected by Section 338, while roughly 20 per cent of its laminated veneer lumber shipments are. The mainstay commodity is insulated. The higher-margin engineered product is not.
What the last two years cost
The British Columbia Council of Forest Industries published the running total on August 20, 2026, in a statement on the indefinite curtailment of a pulp mill: “Since 2023, at least 21 BC lumber mills have closed permanently or indefinitely. In addition, 4 pulp mills have closed or curtailed in the last 9 months. More than 15,000 forestry jobs have been lost since 2022.”
The named closures trace the arc. West Fraser shut its 100 Mile House sawmill by the end of 2025, taking out roughly 165 jobs and 160 million board feet of capacity. Canfor announced on July 14, 2026 that its Northwood pulp mill in Prince George would close permanently in the fourth quarter, ending roughly 300 jobs represented by Unifor Local 603 and 300,000 tonnes of northern bleached softwood kraft capacity. Domtar indefinitely curtailed the Howe Sound pulp mill at Port Mellon in late August. Interfor cut roughly 12 per cent of its North American production in September 2025 and took its Ear Falls, Nairn and Gogama operations in Ontario to indefinite curtailment in early 2026. Conifex curtailed its Mackenzie sawmill for roughly seven weeks beginning May 19 before restarting in July. Aspen Planers in Merritt has been down for about a year on fibre supply.
Quebec’s list runs in parallel. Chantiers Chibougamau closed its Val-d’Or and Sullivan facilities permanently in 2025, affecting roughly 200 staff at Val-d’Or, and ceased operations at its Bearn sawmill in Temiscamingue on July 10, 2026, affecting the majority of 68 workers. Groupe Lebel permanently ended operations at Saint-Joseph-de-Kamouraska in March 2026; the mill had capacity for 170,000 cubic metres and had been sawing under 60,000. The F.F. Soucy paper mill at Riviere-du-Loup ended operations after losing its chip supply from Saint-Joseph. Arbec’s Port-Cartier sawmill went indefinite, affecting roughly 80 unionized workers and 20 managers.
The production numbers explain the closures better than any single policy does. British Columbia lumber production has fallen from 12.6 billion board feet in 2014 to 6.7 billion in 2024, a 48 per cent decline between 2018 and 2024 alone. Shipments to the United States are down 2.1 billion board feet, or 32 per cent, over that period. BC lumber exports to the United States were 4.5 billion board feet in 2024, the lowest since the 1970s, and fell a further 14.3 per cent to 3.83 billion in 2025. The United States takes 67 per cent of BC lumber shipments and 59 per cent for Canada overall.
The fibre picture underneath is the structural constraint. British Columbia’s allowable annual cut is roughly 60 million cubic metres. The actual harvest in 2024 and 2025 was about 32 million. The province’s fiscal plan assumes roughly 29 million. Industry is asking for 45 million.
Canada supplies roughly 85 per cent of United States lumber imports and about a quarter of total American available supply. Fastmarkets expects North American softwood capacity to fall by more than 1.3 billion board feet in 2026 from a combination of British Columbia and United States South closures.
Duty deposits held by United States Customs continue to accumulate. The Globe and Mail reported in April 2026 that roughly US$8 billion in cash deposits plus approximately US$2 billion in accrued interest were on hand, a total above US$10 billion. A December 2025 tally circulated in the trade press, combining antidumping, countervailing and Section 232 deposits with interest and foreign exchange effects, put the figure at C$13.7 billion.
The pressure on Victoria
On September 4, fifteen British Columbia forestry organizations signed a joint letter to Premier David Eby, published by COFI on September 9. It is the sharpest document in the file, and notably it aims most of its fire at the provincial government rather than at Washington.
“BC’s forest sector is at a breaking point. Immediate action is required,” it opens.
“The breakdown of Canada-U.S. trade discussions and the imposition of new 50% Section 338 tariffs make provincial action even more urgent,” the letter continues. “Canadian softwood lumber is already subject to combined U.S. duties and tariffs exceeding 45%.”
Then the turn: “BC companies cannot control U.S. trade policy. But British Columbia can control many of the costs, regulations, policies, permitting processes and fibre-access decisions that determine whether those companies survive it.”
And the demand: “This moment requires more than supporting workers and communities after another mill, manufacturing facility or contracting business closes. It requires action before those closures occur. We request an urgent meeting with you to establish the Forestry Crisis Action Group. Let’s roll up our sleeves and get to work.”
The asks are specific: a Forestry Crisis Action Group led by the Premier’s Office, a move from roughly 29 million to roughly 45 million cubic metres of economically viable harvest, a freeze on all new provincial fees and taxes on the sector, a permitting and fibre triage team, and a public Forest Sector Crisis Action Plan within 30 days. COFI estimates the harvest increase alone would generate roughly $600 million a year in additional government revenue, against a provincial natural gas revenue shortfall of roughly $300 million a year.
Signatories span the industry: Kim Haakstad of COFI, Brian Menzies of the Independent Wood Processors Association, Todd Chamberlain of the Interior Logging Association, Peter Lister of the Truck Loggers Association, John Nester of the Northwest Loggers Association, Ted Dergousoff of the Interior Lumber Manufacturers’ Association, Lennard Joe of the First Nations Forestry Council, Jeff Bromley of the United Steelworkers, Gord Chipman of Woodlots BC, Jennifer Gunter of the BC Community Forest Association, Megan Hanacek of the Private Forest Landowners Association, Joe Nemeth of the Pulp and Paper Coalition, Brian Hawrysh of BC Wood, John Betts of the Western Forestry Contractors Association, and Bhavjit Thandi of the BC Plywood and Veneer Coalition.
The province’s answer came on September 18 at the Union of BC Municipalities convention in Vancouver, where Eby paused a planned provincial sales tax expansion and announced $90 million in tariff support: $30 million for a renewed BC Manufacturing Jobs Fund, $30 million for technology companies, $15 million for rural infrastructure and $15 million for Buy BC. Forestry sector and forest-dependent community applications are to be prioritized and expedited. The province is separately exploring a “working forest landscape” model announced in August, aimed at the 45 million cubic metre target.
No meeting to establish the Forestry Crisis Action Group had been announced as of September 20.
Ward Stamer, the BC Conservative forestry critic and MLA for Kamloops-North Thompson, told Castanet on September 20 that more closures are coming. “Once a pulp mill goes down, it usually drags two or three sawmills and value added along with it,” he said, warning that mills around Kamloops could close within three to four months if markets stay soft. On permitting: “They’ve overcomplicated it, add all the additional consultation and approvals with First Nations, and now you’re in a situation where a lot of times it doesn’t get done.” On fibre: “Aspen Planers is screaming for fibre in Merritt, and they’ve been shut down for a year. Industry’s telling me, behind the scenes, there’s a lot of fibre that we could be accessing right now and, for whatever reason, the government’s just taking their time to try to get through the process.”
Forests Minister Ravi Parmar has been candid about the mix of causes. On the Canfor Northwood closure in July: “There is no question that B.C.’s forestry sector is facing immense challenges from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and duties, weak lumber prices affecting sawmill operations, and a steep and continued decline in pulp prices.” On Domtar Howe Sound: “British Columbia’s pulp sector is feeling the effects of a seismic shift in the global pulp market. We are currently approaching the lowest pulp prices in 100 years, when adjusted for inflation. B.C.’s northern bleached softwood kraft pulp is being outcompeted by low-cost hardwood eucalyptus pulp. Understanding the cause does not lessen our responsibility to act.”
The American position
The US Lumber Coalition treats the seventh review preliminaries as vindication rather than concession.
“The Commerce Department findings confirm, yet again, that Canada continues to trade unfairly in softwood lumber,” executive director Zoltan van Heyningen said on April 9. “Time has come for Canada to stop subsidizing its lumber industry and instead reduce its massive excess lumber production to meet market realities.”
He put a capacity argument behind it: “Canada consumes an estimated 7 billion board feet of lumber, but has the capacity to produce 27 billion board feet of lumber. Canada dumps 90 percent of its excess lumber capacity into the U.S. market, directly displacing U.S. manufacturing and U.S. jobs.”
The same release made the procedural point that Canadian producers have been repeating to their own customers: “The preliminary numbers released by the Commerce Department today do not change the cash deposit rates collected on unfairly traded Canadian lumber imports until the seventh annual review becomes final later this year.”
Commerce’s own framing, from the sixth-review countervailing final in August 2025, emphasized the direction of travel: “the final rate for non-selected companies, which applies to most Canadian companies, increased to 14.63 percent, up from 6.74 percent determined in the previous administrative review.”
Ottawa’s response and its limits
Federal support has grown to over $2 billion in measures since August 2025, according to Natural Resources Canada. The headline components are $1.25 billion for softwood transformation, $1.7 billion in loans and loan guarantees for liquidity, and $500 million in transformation programs alongside demand-side measures including the Buy Canadian Policy and Build Canada Homes.
The $700 million loan guarantee facility runs through the Business Development Bank of Canada as the Softwood Lumber Guarantee Program, accessed through firms’ existing lenders, with the maximum loan size raised from $30 million to $50 million in June 2026. A separate $50 million over three years through Employment and Social Development Canada is aimed at reskilling more than 6,000 forest workers.
Named uptake has come through the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility administered by the Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation: $60 million to Arbec Bois d’oeuvre on July 28, covering eight plants and roughly 800 employees, and $30 million to Conifex Timber on September 18, supporting 260 direct jobs in Mackenzie.
“Our softwood lumber industry is facing real challenges, and our government is making sure Canada meets them with resilience,” Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson said of the Conifex loan. Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne framed it as holding ground: “Today’s support to Conifex continues our government’s steadfast defence of Canada’s forest sector by protecting the livelihoods of those living in Mackenzie, while we position our industry to focus on more reliable markets.”
There is an uncomfortable finding sitting in Ottawa’s own work. The federal Forest Sector Transformation Task Force, which ran a 90-day mandate from January 19 to April 18, 2026, concluded that many of Canadian forestry’s most serious problems are homegrown rather than imported. The September 4 industry letter quotes that conclusion back at the provincial government.
On the diplomatic track, softwood was raised at the July 1 CUSMA joint review. Dominic LeBlanc, the minister responsible for Canada-United States trade, said afterward that for Canada the discussions must include “substantive discussions with the United States on addressing sectoral tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, autos and lumber.” Reporting by The Globe and Mail and Global News indicated the near-deal that collapsed in August would have removed the 10 per cent Section 232 lumber tariff by September 1, with antidumping and countervailing duties handled separately in the fall. It did not land. No sectoral softwood agreement exists.
One further date is fixed. The Canada-British Columbia Cooperative Prosperity Agreement, signed by Carney and Eby in Vancouver on July 2, sets a December 1, 2026 deadline in Annex A for softwood lumber measures.
What this means for buyers and sellers
For American buyers of Canadian lumber, nothing changes until the finals publish. Cash deposit rates remain at 35.16 per cent for most suppliers plus the 10 per cent Section 232 tariff. If the finals track the preliminaries, deposit rates drop to roughly 25 per cent combined, and the differential between deposits already posted and the final assessed rate becomes refundable with interest for entries within the period of review. Importers should be modelling the refund, not the headline.
For Canadian producers, the planning question is whether a ten-point cut changes any mill’s operating decision. On a rate stack that still exceeds 35 per cent all-in, against a fibre supply running at roughly half of allowable cut, into a pulp market at century-low real prices, the honest answer at most operations appears to be no. The preliminaries would return margin to companies that are already running. They would not reopen a mill that has been permanently closed.
For anyone selling engineered wood, panels or secondary-manufactured product into the United States, the Section 338 exposure is the more urgent file and it is not on any review cycle. It moves when the political relationship moves, and as of this week the political relationship is not moving.
The next two hard dates are October 1, when Commerce’s hardwood report to the President is due, and December 1, the softwood deadline written into the federal-provincial agreement with British Columbia. The seventh review finals sit somewhere in between, on a schedule nobody has published.