Section 122 expires automatically at 12:01 AM EDT on July 24, 2026 unless Congress acts to extend or replace it. As of the most recent update, two CIT lawsuits challenge the surcharge’s validity, no Congressional extension bill has cleared committee, and Section 232 sectoral expansions (pharma effective July 31) are positioned as partial sectoral substitutes. This page tracks the deadline weekly.
This page is the rolling status update on Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the global import surcharge that took effect February 24, 2026 and is scheduled to expire July 24, 2026. We update it weekly with court filings, regulatory developments, Congressional movement, and what each shift means for SMB importers.
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The deadline at a glance
- Expiration: 12:01 AM EDT, July 24, 2026 (statutory; cannot be extended by executive action).
- Days remaining (as of last update): see header date above.
- Successor scenarios: Congressional extension; Section 232 sectoral expansion; no successor (tariff vacuum).
- Active litigation: two CIT challenges to Section 122 validity; one CIT order on IEEPA refund mechanics.
What we are watching this week
Litigation
CIT challenges to Section 122 are the fastest path to early termination. If a CIT panel rules that the surcharge does not address a “fundamental international payments problem” – the statutory predicate – Section 122 falls before the natural expiry, and a separate refund window opens for duties paid since February 24.
Congressional action
Watch House Ways & Means and Senate Finance markups. Successor bills tend to surface 4-6 weeks before a tariff cliff; we monitor floor schedules, committee schedules, and CBO scoring requests.
Section 232 sectoral expansions
Pharma Section 232 takes effect July 31, 2026 with tiered rates. MedTech Section 232 investigation is in flight. Semiconductor 232 is in review. These are partial substitutes for Section 122 in specific sectors – they do not replace Section 122 as a global surcharge.
Reciprocal tariff framework
The pre-SCOTUS reciprocal tariff regime stalled when its IEEPA basis was struck down. A Section 232 + Section 301-based reciprocal scheme is theoretically possible but has not been announced. Worth watching.
Three scenarios for what comes after July 24
Scenario A: Congressional extension or replacement
Most operationally stable outcome. A bill extends Section 122 (or replaces it with a parallel statute) before July 24. Importers face continuity; refund risk is low.
Probability: low to moderate as of latest update. Trade-policy votes have political costs in an election year.
Scenario B: Section 232 sectoral coverage
Section 122 expires; specific sectors (auto, pharma, MedTech, semiconductors, specific consumer categories) get Section 232 measures. Other sectors revert to MFN.
Probability: moderate to high. Section 232 expansions are already in flight independent of Section 122 expiration.
Importer impact: highly bifurcated. Sectors covered by Section 232 face higher rates than they currently pay under Section 122 in many cases. Sectors not covered see costs drop.
Scenario C: tariff vacuum
Section 122 expires; no statutory successor; Section 232 expansions cover only narrow sectors. Most non-Section 301 imports revert to MFN baselines.
Probability: low to moderate. Politically unappealing for the administration; strategically possible if Congress fails to act and Section 232 process slips.
Importer impact: cost relief on most categories. Section 122 refund window opens for the February-July duties paid.
What SMB importers should be doing now
- Track Section 122 exposure: what is your annualized cost at 15% on the affected portion of your import volume? Most importers we work with were not modeling this systematically.
- Verify USMCA qualification status: USMCA-qualifying goods are exempt. If you have not run the USMCA qualification analysis since 2024, run it now – the cost-benefit math has shifted.
- File IEEPA refunds (separate process): the IEEPA refund window is open through CAPE. See /ieepa-refund-guide/. Do not wait – the protest window for liquidated entries closes 180 days from liquidation.
- Build successor scenarios into the rest-of-2026 budget: model your imports under Scenarios A, B, and C above. Suppliers, customers, and forward orders all key off these numbers.
- Watch for the CIT decisions: a CIT ruling against Section 122 before July 24 opens a separate refund window for the February-July duties. Subscribe to the weekly email to catch the trigger fast.
Most recent updates
This is the rolling log section. We post the most recent week’s update at the top. The site’s editorial team updates weekly; significant developments (CIT decisions, Congressional action, regulatory announcements) prompt same-day updates.
Subscribe to the Friday briefing for email delivery. Updates are also posted to LinkedIn (@kylepeacock-tariffs) and to the LinkedIn newsletter.
Frequently asked questions
Will Section 122 tariffs expire on July 24, 2026?
Yes, by statute, unless Congress acts. Section 122 is capped at 150 days. The President cannot extend it unilaterally. Whether something replaces it is the open question.
Can Section 122 be made permanent?
Only by Congressional statute. Section 122 itself is permanently in the U.S. Code as a temporary tariff authority. The current surcharge is a use of that authority and is bounded by the 150-day cap.
What is the most likely successor to Section 122?
Realistically, a mix: Section 232 sectoral expansions covering specific industries (auto, pharma, MedTech, semiconductors), with a partial tariff vacuum on categories not covered. A clean Congressional extension is operationally simpler but politically harder.
If Section 122 expires, do I get a refund?
Probably not from natural expiration alone. Refunds come from a successful CIT challenge (or appellate decision) that retroactively invalidates the duties. Watch the CIT docket; subscribe to the email update for trigger events.
How does Section 122 compare to the prior IEEPA tariff?
Different statute, different scope, different cap. IEEPA had no statutory rate or duration cap and was struck down by the Supreme Court. Section 122 caps at 15% and 150 days but is on firmer legal footing. The practical importer cost is similar; the legal vulnerability is lower.
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