Tariff scenario planning involves: (1) identifying plausible policy scenarios (Section 122 expiration, sectoral expansions, country-specific actions), (2) financial stress testing under each scenario, (3) defining decision triggers (when to shift sourcing, when to raise prices), (4) regular scenario review as policy moves. Useful for boards and senior management.
This guide covers Tariff Scenario Planning. Strategic tariff work spans sourcing decisions, scenario planning, and supply chain design.
Practical implementation depends on company size, sector, and operational structure.
Identifying plausible scenarios
3-5 scenarios covering optimistic, base, pessimistic outcomes. Tied to specific policy events (Section 122 expiration, etc.).
Financial stress testing
Calculate landed cost, margin, EBITDA impact under each scenario. Identify breaking points.
Decision triggers
Define specific triggers for action: “If Section 232 semiconductor takes effect at 25%, shift X% of Korean sourcing to Vietnam.”
Regular review cadence
Quarterly updates. Major policy moves trigger immediate scenario refresh.
Frequently asked questions
When does this apply?
Most relevant for SMB importers facing the named situation or considering the named strategy.
What documentation is needed?
Standard CBP forms plus topic-specific records.
What is the timeline?
Initial assessment 2-4 weeks; complex implementation 8-16 weeks.
What does this cost?
Project work typically $5,000-$25,000. Ongoing retainer for active operations.
How do I begin?
Book a 15-minute scoping call. We confirm fit before any engagement.
Get started
Engage on supply chain or strategy work. Project pricing varies by scope.